Forecasting Global Change
Since 1980, Barry Hughes and his DU students have been forecasting the future.
Hughes, a professor in the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, is among a small group of social scientists using sophisticated computer models to help policy analysts explore global change.
His research and analysis in areas such as demographics, agriculture, energy, economics and the environment have significantly influenced the field of dynamic modeling.
International Futures
DU professor Barry Hughes and his graduate students utilize the "International Futures" model to forecast global change and the implications that may come it.
Hughes calls his model for forecasting International Futures (IFs), an acronym he says is a "reminder that thinking about the future involved exploring a multiplicity of 'if-then' statements." He began developing the system in the early 1970s.
The IF model, now in its fifth generation, utilizes data compiled since 1960 from 182 countries in order to create nearly 1,000 variables. Hughes, students, and other scientists track long-term global trends and develop alternative scenarios around them with the model.
Recently, the program received a $7.45 million dollar gift from investor-philanthropist Frederick Pardee to expand the program. A new Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures center will serve as a world source of research, education and analysis in the field of international futures.
Modeling the world
Hughes’ research has gone global and has been used by some of the world’s most important governmental groups.
In 2000, IFs became a foundation of the European Commission’s TERRA project, and in 2004, the model supported the U.N. Environmental Program’s fourth Global Environmental Outlook.
The National Intelligence Council published its landmark “2020 Project” report, “Mapping the Global Future,” using Hughes IFs model.
Classroom insights
Hughes brought his program to DU in 1980 after years of consulting with the governments of Germany, Iran and Egypt. His goal was to include students in an ongoing effort to explore and expand the IFs system.
Hughes adapted the system so it could be used on a personal computer and over the Internet. This enabled his students to use the modeling system—and also brought it to an audience beyond governments and private corporations.
Through the program, students are given full access to the International Futures simulation.
“IFs helps students tackle the vastness of International Studies by enabling them to visualize the structure and dynamics of the interactions among inter-connected world systems,” says PhD student Mohammod Irfan of Bangladesh.
A thinking tool
Although students enjoy working with the system, Hughes reminds them that "International Futures is a thinking tool for our global future, not a crystal ball."
Hughes encourages students to create and define new areas of research. To date, Hughes and his students have expanded the IFs system beyond its original parameters to encompass new areas such as education and healthcare.
"Hopefully, we're adding value to the model, which will help policymakers make better decisions," observes Cecilia Peterson, a PhD student from Philadelphia.
Already working on predictions for 2050, Hughes’ students are following in their mentor’s footsteps.
Mohammod explains, "IFs holds promise. I believe in the IFs’ role in improving the quality of life around the world by helping analysts identify and explore human interventions necessary for such improvements."
Published on Nov. 26, 2007